My Reichenbach Theory

As 2013 winds down and the BBC taunts us with teaser trailers for the third season of Sherlock, I thought I'd post my theory on how (or more so, why) Sherlock came to survive his fall. If you have not been watching this show, I strongly suggest that you immediately stop reading this post and get to Netflix or the BBC site and watch the six 90-minute episodes.

Now.

This very second.

Last chance.

Okay, then. On with my theory...

From the very beginning, Sherlock has been setting a plan in motion to infiltrate an elaborate criminal network plaguing Britain. The start of the series introduces us to Sherlock after he has been recruited by his brother and the Crown to assist in the takedown of this organization, a group that Sherlock has been given little intel on but clearly knows exists. To capture the attention of this organization, he has started his own blog but takes on a roommate as a means of further establishing his cover as the world's only consulting detective, a choice that allows him to play his part consistently and convincingly without bringing immediate suspicion to his true intentions. He clearly doesn't need a roommate for financial reasons (as everyone offers Sherlock food and shelter freely in appreciation for his previous detective work and worries nothing of money), and most certainly not for social interaction, so Dr. John Watson is brought in to serve as an asset and as audience. Whether Watson was specifically targeted for this job or Sherlock merely "lucked out" in his fishing for a new roommate is certainly up for debate. Since Watson has military connections, I prefer to believe that he was handpicked by Mycroft directly.

Over the course of the first six episodes, Sherlock manages to successfully attract the attention of Moriarty and his syndicate, convince this organization that he is worthy of membership without making it apparent that he is in fact seeking membership, and ultimately participates in a series of tests and trials to gain access to this network. His brother is the only individual aware of the plan while all others are kept in the dark in order to keep their interactions with Sherlock true to character (and probably out of general lack of trust). Moriarty and Adler are both agents for this criminal network, but neither is the leader. Molly Hooper is a mole (and possibly higher on the food chain than Moriarty) and has been spying Sherlock all along.

I would really love if the true mastermind turns out to be Mrs. Hudson. Because that would be bloody brilliant.

With regards to Sherlock's fall at the conclusion of season two, he was forced into disgracing himself publicly and faking his suicide as the last step in joining this organization. Moriarty's suicide was both the final blow in destroying Sherlock's credibility and a signal to his employer that Sherlock had passed inspection. It would have been swell if they could have faked Moriarty's death (as Andrew Scott is delightfully vicious as this character), but it was an unfortunate necessity in sealing Sherlock's fate.

And while we all wait to see where season three brings us, allow me to point out some key moments from the first six episodes that support this theory...


A Study in Pink

Watson: He is brought in as a roommate when clearly the need for a roommate is completely lacking in Sherlock's personal and professional life. However, by adding a roommate, particularly one with military and medical experience, Sherlock will have an asset in his plan to infiltrate this mysterious organization he knows so little about. Watson is also the perfect player for Mycroft to use to keep an active connection with Sherlock while Sherlock is establishing his cover.

Molly: She plays her role mousy and lovesick so she can ogle/spy on Sherlock without bringing attention to herself, but she is far too aggressive with her interactions with him and breaks way too many rules to not be a mole. The fact that she has chosen such a low-ranking position at the hospital even leads me to suspect she is much higher in the organization than one would expect.

Sherlock: When he leaves 221B Baker Street to visit the fourth suicide victim, Sherlock announces that "the game is on." While we are to assume that he's excited to investigate this particular case, he is actually announcing the official kickoff to his long con with for the government.

Mycroft: By offering compensation to Watson in exchange for spying on Sherlock, Mycroft simultaneously manipulates Watson into blindly accepting his role as an asset, demonstrates that the roommate position has been intended as a government job from the start, and establishes Watson as a loyal and potentially trustworthy character.

The Cabbie: He introduces Sherlock to the name Moriarty and serves as Sherlock's first test with the network.

Moriarty: From Sherlock's reaction to the name, this is new information for him.


The Blind Banker

Sherlock: He takes on the case not because of the connection with a former schoolmate, but rather because he is bored waiting for the network to make its next move and this case provides the greatest chance that Moriarty is involved.

The Black Lotus: This group is not the organization that Sherlock and Mycroft are hunting but a peripheral organization working with Moriarty. Obviously. They have been brought in as a third-party to act as the second test of Sherlock's abilities.


The Great Game

Moriarty: This case marks the first time that the organization seeks to directly test Sherlock. While the previous two tests involved third parties, Moriarty needed to test Sherlock's skills and intentions personally.

Mycroft: He and Sherlock clearly wait for Watson to return home before beginning their conversation about the West case. This case has been carefully selected to set Watson up as the driving force behind any future involvement between Sherlock and Mycroft/the Crown. Watson's sense of duty and country may be considered the reason why Sherlock would use his powers for helping his brother rather than turning to a life of crime.

Sherlock: When the woman calls with Moriarty's first riddle, Sherlock quietly whispers, "The curtain rises." When asked by Watson as to the meaning of this remark, Sherlock admits to have been "expecting this for some time." This case marks a pivotal moment in establishing his long con.

Molly: She physically brings Moriarty to Sherlock for an introduction. By posing as boyfriend-girlfriend, Moriarty appears as diabolical opponent while Molly establishes her character as seemingly naive and unaware. Consider the motive behind this introduction. Had the introduction been Moriarty's idea, he would have found some other means for "Jim the IT Guy" to cross paths with Sherlock, so this is clearly Molly's move. So this establishes the introduction as either Molly's attempt to make Sherlock jealous of her new boyfriend or her mastermind move to establish Moriarty as a fiend while removing any suspicion of her being a mole. She's playing the part too mousy to not be a mole.


A Scandal in Belgravia

Moriarty: The call he receives that ends the pool scene is supposedly from Adler explaining that she has part of an email that he wants but needs to be decrypted. He responds so explosively to this supposed information that he threatens to skin her if she doesn't deliver. Since he allows Sherlock to live here, the true purpose of the call is to 1) show Sherlock that there is more to the organization than just Moriarty and 2) provide Sherlock the clues to his next test: Adler.

Mycroft: Mycroft's role in providing Sherlock with the essential details needed to solve the Coventry Conundrum at the end while also sending him directly to Irene Adler indicate that Mycroft has more information regarding the organization than Sherlock. But to give Sherlock this information directly would giveaway the plan for Sherlock to infiltrate the syndicate, so these carefully established top-secret plane plans and information delivery methods have been schemed to further maintain Sherlock's cover without bringing any real harm to the Crown.

Adler: She is just as cunning and dangerous as Moriarty...and another test for Sherlock on the part of this unknown organization. Since her test came after Moriarty's, she must be higher up in the organization than he is. Much like Watson's friendship with Sherlock, the mutual attraction between Sherlock and Adler was unintended but not entirely inconvenient.

Molly: Her appearance at the Christmas party is so over-the-top that it had to have been done in hopes of drawing any suspicion away from her being involved professionally with Moriarty. That or she is one truly masochistic woman. My money is still on the mole theory. Especially after seeing her dejection following Sherlock's failed second attempt at unlocking Adler's phone.

Sherlock: By cracking the code to Adler's phone after having "accidentally" provided Adler (and Moriarty) with the top-secret flight information, Sherlock further maintains his impressive reputation with the organization while appearing to be more interested in solving the puzzles than helping the Crown. Since his performance on this test also makes him appear fallible to the government, it boosts the likelihood that the organization will seek him out to join now.

The Execution Scene: The motive behind Sherlock's rescue at the end is most likely done out of attraction for Adler and for the good of his cover, but I'm fairly certain that she is considered just as expendable to the network as we will soon find Moriarty to be.


The Hounds of Baskerville

Sherlock: Once again, Sherlock finds himself waiting impatiently for the organization to make its next move. This case provides the opportunity for him to keep his senses sharp while granting him time to wait for his long con to play out. While he sees Moriarty's face in a hallucination at the end, this case holds no direct connection to Sherlock's plan.

Moriarty: As the organization has now decided to invite Sherlock to join, Moriarty is given the task of burning Sherlock's reputation, as alluded to in the pool scene. We later learn, Moriarty uses Mycroft's interrogation (seen briefly at the end of the episode) to gain the information he needs to ruin Sherlock.


The Reichenbach Fall

Sherlock: He knows that he is about to given the job offer that he has been after since the start but is not entirely clear on the exact conditions this offer will entail. In the end, the public disgracing poses a great challenge for Sherlock, but the hardest part is having to leave his unintended friend Watson in the dark. And since that is too painful, he gives Watson clues to his true intentions.

Moriarty: He is always in control of his emotions and behaviors up until the very last scene. He knows how the roof scene must play out and is teary eyed knowing that this marks his end. But at the same time, he is ever the professional and executes his final orders faithfully and with absolute style.

The Reporter: She initiates the official job offer when she meets Sherlock in the bathroom. When they meet later in her apartment, he gains a better understanding for the organization's plan to bring him in (through her reference to their initial interaction). It is immediately following this final interaction that Sherlock works out the next play and runs to Molly.

Molly: During the breadcrumbs case, she confides in Sherlock that she sees how sad he is when she sees him looking at Watson. She also offers to help him in any way she can. It is this point when Sherlock recognizes that she is a mole but is unaware of how to use that information until the meeting with the Reporter and Moriarty later: she will provide the forensic help needed to disguise his suicide.

Mycroft: He must be aware that Sherlock's death was staged. Although we are not given any clue as to his involvement in funeral plans or body identification, he is clearly worried for Sherlock at the end - praying for his safety moving forward without his help.

Watson: Obviously, Watson was positioned to see Sherlock's suicide and provide a convincing cover for Sherlock's actual intentions spying for his brother. In addition to the biker who knocks him over, the medical staff who immediately (and quite conveniently) arrive on scene are adamant about keeping Watson from touching the body. However, Sherlock emphatically explains to Watson how this phone call is his "note", a reference to the Rache clue in their first case together. He also has enough time to handle Sherlock's wrist to take a pulse and confirm that Sherlock is still alive. He recognizes that he must play along to convince everyone that the suicide was real.

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Now that I have that out of my system, feel free to poke holes.

Sherlock would want you to.